Asset protection and investing during wartime – Your Plan B

 

 

War is the father of all and the king of all; it proves some people gods, and some people men; it makes some people slaves and some people free.

Heraclitus

 

War and changes in society are, indeed, a great risk but also, maybe unfortunately, a great opportunity.

 

Stage 1: The War is Far Away

When conflict is geographically distant and your assets aren’t directly threatened, focus on investment opportunities rather than wealth protection. Consider:

  1. Defense industry investments (weapons, tanks, etc.)
  2. Healthcare sector (for treating casualties)
  3. Commodities (oil, gas, food – due to supply chain disruptions)

Don’t panic-sell during initial market downturns. Instead, envision post-war scenarios and invest accordingly. Be prepared for inflation by minimizing cash reserves. Use this time to plan potential investments for subsequent stages, considering various scenarios (duration, winners, damages, international sanctions, etc.).

Stage 2: War is Imminent or in a Neighboring Country

Test your internationalization strategy:

  1. Ideally, assets should already be globally distributed
  2. If not, quickly move mobile, non-essential resources abroad
  3. Prepare for potential capital controls or panic
  4. Maintain bank accounts in different countries and currencies
  5. Keep sufficient cash reserves for survival and potential evacuation

Consider keeping a portion of assets liquid to capitalize on market dips. Evaluate property holdings based on expected post-war scenarios – sell if regime change and redistribution are likely, or look for bargains if the current system is expected to prevail.

Stage 3: Active Conflict in Your Area

Priorities shift from market timing to survival. Consider:

  1. Fleeing to a safe neighboring country
  2. Preparing for potential loss of all local assets
  3. Maintaining access to foreign asset management
  4. Adjusting expectations about local debts and receivables

Stage 4: Peace (or Ceasefire) and Reconstruction

Reconstruction offers significant investment opportunities:

  1. Provide capital for damage repair and societal restoration
  2. Invest in rebuilding infrastructure (housing, roads, telecommunications)
  3. Support businesses needing capital to resume operations
  4. Consider private equity placements or investments in major local stocks

Timing is crucial – liquidate foreign investments to reinvest in the home country for higher returns. Long-term investments in basic infrastructure may offer political influence and tax advantages for “rebuilding helpers.”This approach emphasizes the importance of preparedness, diversification, and adaptability in protecting and growing wealth during times of conflict.

“If you must panic, panic early. Be scared when you can, not when you have to. ”

Taleb

 

What is your backup plan? Talk to us.